Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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Browsing Electronic Theses and Dissertations by Author "Almas, Lal K."
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Item Economic evaluation of silage crops under reduced irrigation in the Texas High Plains(2016-06-20) Mensah, Emmanuel; Almas, Lal K.Agriculture production remains a major mainstay of the Texas High Plains economy. However, the primary groundwater source (Ogallala Aquifer) that supports the intensive nature of irrigated agriculture and livestock operations is waning rapidly which raises alarm for future sustainability of agriculture production in the area. The main goal of the study is to analyze the economic feasibility of corn silage and sorghum silage under reduced irrigation in the Texas High Plains. The specific objectives were to: 1) Estimate water response function for irrigated corn silage and sorghum silage. 2) Use the input response function to determine optimum levels of input to maximize profit for corn silage and sorghum silage production. 3) Perform a comparative analysis of water use between corn silage and sorghum silage and estimate potential water savings. 4) Predict the effect of forage quality of corn silage and sorghum silage on milk yield per ton of forage dry matter. Data for sorghum silage were obtained from the Texas AgriLife Research Center in Amarillo, Texas from sorghum silage trials 2007 to 2014 whereas corn silage data were obtained from 2009 to 2013 corn silage trials from the State Silage Corn Performance Test at Etter. Models were developed to determine the effect of water on corn silage and sorghum silage yield. These models were further used to determine the optimal input levels of total available water and applied irrigation water to maximize profit. The R2 value from the restricted model relating corn silage and sorghum silage to total available water received explained 99% and 97% of the variation in yield, respectively. The profit for irrigated sorghum silage ($43/ton) and irrigated corn silage ($48/ton) in the Northern Texas High Plains are $183/acre and $471/acre, respectively, at a natural gas price of $4/Mcf whereas the Southern Texas High Plains, had $242/acre and $554/acre, respectively, at electricity price of $0.074/kWh. A total of 258,068 acre-feet of water will be needed to produce 4,180,711 tons of corn silage whereas 239,692 acre-feet of water will be required to grow 4,646,340 tons of sorghum silage to meet the feed (silage) requirement of dairy cows in the Texas High Plains. The amount of water saved if corn silage is replaced by 50% irrigated sorghum silage and 50% dryland sorghum silage is 138,222 acre-feet. Crude protein, in-vitro true digestibility, starch, and lignin content of corn silage forage quality explained 99% of the variation in milk yield while sorghum silage forage quality explained 98%. Although there is 16% increase in milk yield in favor of corn silage due to forage quality, it is economically profitable to feed the dairy cows with sorghum silage as far as buying or growing both silages to formulate ration for dairy cows are concerned. The production cost of corn silage in the feed component of dairy cows is 15% more than sorghum silage per year. Improvement in crude protein, in-vitro true digestibility, and starch content of sorghum silage will increase the quantity of milk produced per ton of forage dry matter. Considering global concerns on water scarcity coupled with unpredictable climate changes, it is economically prudent to consider sorghum silage especially in the Texas High Plains where the groundwater (Ogallala Aquifer) is waning.Item Grain Sorghum Production Analysis in U.S. under Declining Ogallala Aquifer, U.S.-China Grain Sorghum Trade, and Food Security Issues in Bangladesh(August 2023) Islam, Tania; Almas, Lal K.; Almas, Lal K.; Guerrero, Bridget; Marcillo, Guillermo; Arnold, ChelseaThis master’s thesis investigates production patterns of grain sorghum in the United States, sorghum trade with China, and the interconnected aspects of food security in Bangladesh through three comprehensive essays. The first essay concentrates on sorghum production trends in Texas, emphasizing the adaptability and advantages of this cereal crop in regions grappling with environmental challenges. This research analyzes temporal changes in harvested acres, production, and yield patterns by utilizing state-level agricultural survey data from 1975 to 2018 and employing exponential growth and quadratic regression models. In addition, the Cobb-Douglas production function was used for identifying significant factors affecting the production. The study uncovers a consistent downward trajectory in harvested acres, and production quantity. However, it also highlights the potential for improvement by promoting the use of advanced sorghum varieties to bolster future production. The major factors influencing grain sorghum production are identified as harvested area, yield, and domestic consumption. The study indicates that providing financial support and encouraging farmers to adopt modern agricultural technologies will enhance grain sorghum productivity and sustainability. The second essay delves into the intricacies of sorghum trade between the United States and China. Sorghum, an ancient grain primarily used for livestock feed, holds considerable significance in the agricultural sector of the United States. Through a comprehensive analysis, this research investigates the determinants of sorghum import demand in China from the United States. Factors such as the sorghum-corn price ratio, exchange rate, per capita gross national product (GNP), and livestock production are considered. Taking annual time series data spanning from 1991 to 2020 and utilizing the single equation import demand model, the study identifies the influential role of these factors in shaping China’s sorghum import quantity. Moreover, it presents a forecast indicating a declining trend in Chinese sorghum imports from 2021 to 2030. The research results indicate that sorghum-corn price ratio, exchange rate, and per capita gross national product are significant factors which affect grain sorghum import quantity to China from the United States. The third essay addresses the urgent issue of food insecurity in Bangladesh, exploring the relationship between food insecurity, economic growth, education, environmental risks, and rice production. By utilizing annual data from 2001 to 2019 and employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study establishes a positive relationship between food insecurity and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it demonstrates that government investment in education improves the lower-class income and lessens the extremity of food insecurity. However, rice production exhibits a negative association with food insecurity in the long run. To tackle this challenge effectively, the study proposes the implementation of favorable policies such as climate-smart agriculture practices, including conservation agriculture, improved water management, and the use of drought-tolerant or flood-resistant rice varieties. An early warning about weather-related risks will help the farmers. By connecting these three essays, this thesis sheds light on the multifaceted nature of sorghum production patterns, sorghum trade dynamics, and global food security. The study emphasizes the importance of favorable import policies for U.S. sorghum in the Chinese market. Additionally, the findings underscore the necessity of implementing socioeconomic and environmentally favorable policies to effectively address food insecurity in Bangladesh. These insights provide a comprehensive foundation for further research and policy development, aiming to foster sustainable and secure food systems on a global scale.