Grain Sorghum Production Analysis in U.S. under Declining Ogallala Aquifer, U.S.-China Grain Sorghum Trade, and Food Security Issues in Bangladesh


August 2023

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This master’s thesis investigates production patterns of grain sorghum in the United States, sorghum trade with China, and the interconnected aspects of food security in Bangladesh through three comprehensive essays. The first essay concentrates on sorghum production trends in Texas, emphasizing the adaptability and advantages of this cereal crop in regions grappling with environmental challenges. This research analyzes temporal changes in harvested acres, production, and yield patterns by utilizing state-level agricultural survey data from 1975 to 2018 and employing exponential growth and quadratic regression models. In addition, the Cobb-Douglas production function was used for identifying significant factors affecting the production. The study uncovers a consistent downward trajectory in harvested acres, and production quantity. However, it also highlights the potential for improvement by promoting the use of advanced sorghum varieties to bolster future production. The major factors influencing grain sorghum production are identified as harvested area, yield, and domestic consumption. The study indicates that providing financial support and encouraging farmers to adopt modern agricultural technologies will enhance grain sorghum productivity and sustainability. The second essay delves into the intricacies of sorghum trade between the United States and China. Sorghum, an ancient grain primarily used for livestock feed, holds considerable significance in the agricultural sector of the United States. Through a comprehensive analysis, this research investigates the determinants of sorghum import demand in China from the United States. Factors such as the sorghum-corn price ratio, exchange rate, per capita gross national product (GNP), and livestock production are considered. Taking annual time series data spanning from 1991 to 2020 and utilizing the single equation import demand model, the study identifies the influential role of these factors in shaping China’s sorghum import quantity. Moreover, it presents a forecast indicating a declining trend in Chinese sorghum imports from 2021 to 2030. The research results indicate that sorghum-corn price ratio, exchange rate, and per capita gross national product are significant factors which affect grain sorghum import quantity to China from the United States. The third essay addresses the urgent issue of food insecurity in Bangladesh, exploring the relationship between food insecurity, economic growth, education, environmental risks, and rice production. By utilizing annual data from 2001 to 2019 and employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study establishes a positive relationship between food insecurity and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it demonstrates that government investment in education improves the lower-class income and lessens the extremity of food insecurity. However, rice production exhibits a negative association with food insecurity in the long run. To tackle this challenge effectively, the study proposes the implementation of favorable policies such as climate-smart agriculture practices, including conservation agriculture, improved water management, and the use of drought-tolerant or flood-resistant rice varieties. An early warning about weather-related risks will help the farmers. By connecting these three essays, this thesis sheds light on the multifaceted nature of sorghum production patterns, sorghum trade dynamics, and global food security. The study emphasizes the importance of favorable import policies for U.S. sorghum in the Chinese market. Additionally, the findings underscore the necessity of implementing socioeconomic and environmentally favorable policies to effectively address food insecurity in Bangladesh. These insights provide a comprehensive foundation for further research and policy development, aiming to foster sustainable and secure food systems on a global scale.



Agriculture, General


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