Faculty Research Poster Session and Research Fair Proceedings
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Browsing Faculty Research Poster Session and Research Fair Proceedings by Author "Almas, Lal"
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Item Biosaline Agriculture: Tomato Production in Egypt and Its Export Potential(2021-03-04) Almas, Lal; Usman, M.; Hazman, M.; El-Sayed, M.; Shams El-Din, A.Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.), an important vegetable, has the highest area under cultivation among vegetables at the global level. Egypt is one of the major tomato producing and exporting country. With a population of over 102 million and annual population growth at 2.27%, Egypt is considered one of the fastest-growing nations in the African continent. Egypt’s total land area is 1,000,450 sq. km and the population covers only the 10 percent while rest of the country is desert. The agriculture sector plays significant role in the Egyptian economy, contributing 14.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. The agricultural sector accounts for 28 percent of all jobs, and over 55 percent of employment in Upper Egypt is agriculture-related. Egypt’s agriculture sector is dominated by small farms using traditional practices. Field crops contribute about 75 % of the total value of Egypt’s agricultural production, while the rest comes from livestock products, fruits and vegetables, and other specialty crops. Major field crops include corn (maize), rice, wheat, sorghum, and fava (broad) beans. Despite a considerable output, the cereal production in Egypt falls short of the country’s total consumption. A substantial amount of foreign exchange is spent annually on the import of cereals and milling products. Egypt is one the major producer of wheat in Africa, with 8.9 million tons in 2020 against its consumption of 21.7 million tonnes. Hence, Egypt is the second-largest importer in the world with more than 12.8 million tonnes in 2020. One of the the main challenges of wheat production in Egypt is available land area. The total arable area is 3.3 million hectares. It is extremely productive and can be cropped two or even three times per year. Most land is cropped at least twice a year, but agricultural productivity is limited by salinity, which afflicts an estimated 35% of cultivated land, and drainage problems. Another challenge to Egypt’s agriculture is shortage of water. Water is a very scarce resource in the region, the major source of this essential commodity is the Nile River. The second threat and the most imminent is the growth of the population. By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to grow by an additional 1.3 billion people, the equivalent of today’s China. For the case of Egypt, the population is expected to reach over 111 million in 2025, lowering the per capita water availability from 1123 m3 in 1990 to 630 m3 in 2025. This shows that the challenge now for Egypt is to look for perennial solutions to lower its dependency on the Nile water supply and to find sustainable alternatives like desalination and biosaline agriculture. This study focuses on the production profitability of tomato by using data from 1961 through 2019 and to identify strategies to increase its production and enhance its export in future in order to earn foreign echange to cover expenses for its imported wheat. The statistical procedures has been applied to analyze and predict the production and consumption of tomato given the estimated population growth of the country up until 2050. The study also provides an overview of all the available opportunities and challenges facing tomato production and its significance in Egypt’s export contribution and potential.Item China's Import Demand Analysis of Grain Sorghum from USA(2023-03-02) Islam, Tania; Almas, Lal; Arnold, Chelsea; Guerrero, BridgetSorghum is an ancient grain which is the most commonly used feed grain for livestock. The United States is the world's second largest producer and top exporter of grain sorghum. It is grown in more than a dozen states across the country and sorghum belt runs from South Dakota to Southern Texas. China, one of the fastest growing economy, is the major destination of U.S. grain sorghum. This research study examines the determinants of an import demand function for U.S. sorghum in China considering the macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and exchange rates (Yen-US$). The time series data from 1991-2020 were used for this analysis. This paper follows the single equation import demand model developed by Thursday and Thursday (1984). China's import demand for sorghum was determined as a function of derived demand of sorghum which is constructed as with the grain sorghum import price, domestic corn price, exchange rate, the country's GDP, and number of livestock production. In 2021, The United States produced about 448 million bushels of grain sorghum and exported 267.2 million bushes to China as chief importer (USDA ERS, 2021). These statistics indicates, U.S. sorghum export market is largely depending on China's sorghum import demand. It is projected that China will continue this import volume while sorghum is low cost feed grain and is substitute for high price corn. The results of this study will be an important sorghum trade analysis and recommendation for world sorghum trading countries, especially for China to implement favorable import policies for US sorghum. On the other hand, this analysis will also be beneficial for US sorghum producers in assessing their export potential not only to China's livestock industry but also other export markets.Item Wheat Consumption Determinants and Food Security Challenges: Evidence from Pakistan(2022-03-03) Shaheen, Sania; Almas, Lal; Usman, MuhammadGlobally, wheat is one of the most widely cultivated staple crop and extensively consumable staple food. It plays a vital role in overcoming food security. Wheat is one of the primary food source of Pakistan. In the beginning of time-period from 1975 to 2020 Pakistan had achieved near self-sufficiency in wheat production. It has been observed that during this period, Pakistan was somewhere a net importer and somewhere a net exporter. This trend shows an irregularity in the food policy of Pakistan. The wheat production and consumption gap is expected to further increase in the coming years due to higher population growth that will exert continuous pressure on wheat consumption that would be a reason for food insecurity issues in Pakistan in the upcoming years. A sustainable food security policy is required to overcome the upcoming food security issues in Pakistan. This study is conducted to explore the determinants of wheat consumption in Pakistan as well as to analyze the own price, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of wheat demand. For estimation purpose, annual time series data were used covering the period from 1972-2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL) econometric technique was applied to investigate the presence of long-term association between wheat demand and wheat consumption determinants. The estimated findings of wheat prices, real GDP, and population highlight that wheat is the basic necessity commodity in Pakistan. Further, the results of rice prices and corn consumption reveal that rice and corn commodities are substitutes to wheat with less elastic demand in Pakistan. The estimated result of wheat imports exhibits a direct and significant impact on wheat consumption. Forecasting graphical analysis shows that in 2020, wheat consumption in Pakistan was 26 million metric tonnes (MT) and increasing at an increasing rate. In 2050 wheat consumption would be 38 million MT (Production 32 million MT) because of the pressure of population. The forecasting analysis results highlight that Pakistan needs 57 million MT of wheat to feed the 491million population of Pakistan in 2100. However, in 2100 the forecasted wheat production is 43 million. Overall, the results suggest that domestic efforts required to reducing the expected gap between wheat demand and supply, which may be decreased through the application of latest innovative production techniques, advanced varieties of wheat, land expansion, and exploring the additional water resources for irrigated agriculture. Based on empirical findings, it is recommended that policymakers, Pakistan government, and stakeholders required to concentrate on inclusive policy for parallel wheat, rice, and corn consumption. Additionally, this study suggested that policymakers, Pakistan government, and stakeholders must pay attention on exploring the ways to raise domestic production of wheat in order to decrease imports of wheat, saving of effective foreign exchange, and to resolve the upcoming food security issues in Pakistan. Keywords: Wheat Consumption Determinants, Own Price Elasticity, Cross Price Elasticity, Income Elasticity, Wheat Supply and Demand Gap, Food Security, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).